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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-10-01T23:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-10-01T23:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33659/-1
CME Note: Developing CME with bulk seen predominantly to the southeast in early frames with a very faint, oval-shaped/asymmetric halo shock portion, associated with an X7.1-class flare and associated eruption from AR3842 (S17E18). Coronal signatures include an EUV wave and large-scale dimming in SDO 171/193 with magnetic field line movement off the southern and southeast limbs and dimming of footpoints bridging the Active Region 3842 (S17E18) in GOES 284. [PRELIMINARY] closed out a non-arrival.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-04T03:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 02/0203 UT
Radial velocity (km/s): 904
Longitude (deg): E03
Latitude (deg): S01
Half-angular width (deg): 50

Notes:

Lead Time: -19.00 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2024-10-04T22:00Z

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